Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bristol Rovers win with a probability of 47.02%. A win for MK Dons had a probability of 28.39% and a draw had a probability of 24.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Bristol Rovers win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.67%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.37%) and 2-0 (7.81%). The likeliest MK Dons win was 0-1 (7.19%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.61%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Bristol Rovers would win this match.