EFL Cup
Sep 8, 2026 8.00pm
The Den

Millwall vs Newcastle United - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings

Form, Standings, Stats

Millwall

All competitions

Newcastle United

All competitions

Data analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats, suggests the most likely outcome of this match is a Newcastle United win with a probability of 40.28%. A win for Millwall has a probability of 35.76% and a draw has a probability of 23.9%.

The most likely scoreline for a Newcastle United win is 0-1 with a probability of 8.86%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome are 1-2 (8.37%) and 0-2 (6.43%). The likeliest Millwall win is 1-0 (8.29%) , while for a drawn scoreline it is 1-1 (10.83%).

Result

Millwall 35.76% (-4.27)
Draw 23.9% (-0.34)
Newcastle United 40.28% (+4.54)

Both Teams to Score: 

54.5% (-0.66)

Goals

Over 1.5 76.29% (-0.48)
Under 1.5 23.71% (+0.49)
Over 2.5 53.55% (-0.24)
Under 2.5 46.45% (+0.24)
Over 3.5 30.93% (-0.72)
Under 3.5 69.07% (+0.72)
Over 4.5 17.58% (-0.89)
Under 4.5 82.42% (+0.88)

First Half Winner

Millwall 28.45% (-3.95)
Draw 41.26% (-1.09)
Newcastle United 30.28% (+5.02)

Team To Score First

Millwall 45.96% (-3.93)
No Goal 6.52% (+0.35)
Newcastle United 47.52% (+3.57)

Corners

Over 8 59.15% (-3.89)
Equal 8 10.85% (+0.75)
Under 8 30% (+3.13)
Over 9 47.98% (-4.35)
Equal 9 11.17% (+0.45)
Under 9 40.85% (+3.89)
Over 10.5 37.37% (-4.45)
Under 10.5 62.63% (+4.45)

Millwall Goals

Over 1.5 36.67% (-3.93)
Under 1.5 63.33% (+3.93)
Over 2.5 15.16% (-2.38)
Under 2.5 84.84% (+2.39)
Over 3.5 4.81% (-1.39)
Under 3.5 95.19% (+1.38)

Newcastle United Goals

Over 0.5 71.97% (+2.61)
Under 0.5 28.03% (-2.61)
Over 1.5 40.56% (+3.41)
Under 1.5 59.44% (-3.41)
Over 2.5 17.77% (+1.85)
Under 2.5 82.23% (-1.85)
Over 3.5 6.44% (+0.78)
Under 3.5 93.56% (-0.77)

Score analysis

Millwall 35.76%
Draw 23.91%
Newcastle United 40.29%
Millwall
1-0 @ 8.29% (-0.64)
2-1 @ 7.97% (-0.78)
2-0 @ 5.48% (-0.72)
3-1 @ 3.75% (-0.31)
3-0 @ 2.9% (-0.38)
3-2 @ 2.57% (-0.19)
Other @ 4.8% (-1.28)
Total : 35.76%
Draw
1-1 @ 10.83% (-0.44)
0-0 @ 6.52% (+0.35)
2-2 @ 5.42% (+0.01)
3-3 @ 1.13% (-0.14)
Other @ 0.01% (-0.11)
Total : 23.91%
Newcastle United
0-1 @ 8.86% (+0.73)
1-2 @ 8.37% (+0.83)
0-2 @ 6.43% (+0.90)
1-3 @ 4.19% (+0.49)
0-3 @ 3.37% (+0.79)
2-3 @ 2.64% (-0.07)
Other @ 6.43% (+0.88)
Total : 40.29%