Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a VVV-Venlo win with a probability of 43.81%. A win for Jong AZ had a probability of 32.96% and a draw had a probability of 23.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a VVV-Venlo win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.95%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.03%) and 2-0 (6.07%). The likeliest Jong AZ win was 1-2 (7.63%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.35%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 6% likelihood.