Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Jong AZ win with a probability of 52.98%. A win for Helmond Sport had a probability of 25.57% and a draw had a probability of 21.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Jong AZ win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.45%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (6.94%) and 1-0 (6.84%). The likeliest Helmond Sport win was 1-2 (6.33%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.31%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 2.9% likelihood.