Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Jong AZ win with a probability of 41.07%. A win for Vitesse had a probability of 36.32% and a draw had a probability of 22.6%.

The most likely scoreline for a Jong AZ win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.46%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (5.85%) and 2-0 (5.15%). The likeliest Vitesse win was 1-2 (7.91%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.62%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 5.5% likelihood.

Result
Jong AZ	Draw	Vitesse
41.07% ( 0.02)	22.6% ( -0.01)	36.32% ( -0.02)

Both teams to score 66.78% (

0.03)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

66.08% (

0.04)

33.92% (

-0.04)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

44.22% (

0.05)

55.77% (

-0.05)

Jong AZ Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

82.77% (

0.03)

17.23% (

-0.03)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

52.47% (

0.04)

47.52% (

-0.05)

Vitesse Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

80.68% (

0.01)

19.32% (

-0.01)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

48.92% (

0.02)

51.07% (

-0.02)

Score Analysis

Jong AZ 41.07%

Vitesse 36.32%

Draw 22.6%

Jong AZ	Draw	Vitesse
2-1 @ 8.46% ( -0) 1-0 @ 5.85% ( -0.01) 2-0 @ 5.15% ( -0) 3-1 @ 4.96% ( 0) 3-2 @ 4.08% ( 0) 3-0 @ 3.02% ( 0) 4-1 @ 2.18% ( 0) 4-2 @ 1.79% ( 0) 4-0 @ 1.33% ( 0) 4-3 @ 0.98% ( 0) Other @ 3.28% Total : 41.07%	1-1 @ 9.62% ( -0.01) 2-2 @ 6.96% ( 0) 0-0 @ 3.33% ( -0.01) 3-3 @ 2.24% ( 0) Other @ 0.46% Total : 22.6%	1-2 @ 7.91% ( -0) 0-1 @ 5.47% ( -0.01) 0-2 @ 4.5% ( -0.01) 1-3 @ 4.34% 2-3 @ 3.81% ( 0) 0-3 @ 2.47% ( -0) 1-4 @ 1.78% 2-4 @ 1.57% ( 0) 0-4 @ 1.01% ( -0) 3-4 @ 0.92% ( 0) Other @ 2.55% Total : 36.32%