Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Vitesse win with a probability of 47.1%. A win for SBV Excelsior had a probability of 29.48% and a draw had a probability of 23.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Vitesse win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.34%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.03%) and 2-0 (6.99%). The likeliest SBV Excelsior win was 1-2 (7.15%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.71%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 10.7% likelihood.