Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Vitesse win with a probability of 47.1%. A win for SBV Excelsior had a probability of 29.48% and a draw had a probability of 23.4%.

The most likely scoreline for a Vitesse win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.34%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.03%) and 2-0 (6.99%). The likeliest SBV Excelsior win was 1-2 (7.15%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.71%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 10.7% likelihood.

Result
Vitesse	Draw	SBV Excelsior
47.1% ( -1.33)	23.42% ( 0.15)	29.48% ( 1.18)

Both teams to score 60.79% (

0.34)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

59.41% (

0.08)

40.59% (

-0.07)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

37.02% (

0.08)

62.98% (

-0.07)

Vitesse Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

82.5% (

-0.47)

17.5% (

0.48)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

51.99% (

-0.84)

48.01% (

0.84)

SBV Excelsior Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

73.69% (

0.83)

26.31% (

-0.83)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

38.56% (

1.1)

61.44% (

-1.09)

Score Analysis

Vitesse 47.1%

SBV Excelsior 29.48%

Draw 23.42%

Vitesse	Draw	SBV Excelsior
2-1 @ 9.34% ( -0.11) 1-0 @ 8.03% ( -0.15) 2-0 @ 6.99% ( -0.25) 3-1 @ 5.43% ( -0.15) 3-0 @ 4.06% ( -0.21) 3-2 @ 3.62% ( -0.01) 4-1 @ 2.36% ( -0.1) 4-0 @ 1.77% ( -0.12) 4-2 @ 1.58% ( -0.03) Other @ 3.92% Total : 47.1%	1-1 @ 10.71% ( 0.05) 2-2 @ 6.23% ( 0.08) 0-0 @ 4.61% ( -0.01) 3-3 @ 1.61% ( 0.03) Other @ 0.26% Total : 23.42%	1-2 @ 7.15% ( 0.2) 0-1 @ 6.15% ( 0.12) 0-2 @ 4.11% ( 0.18) 1-3 @ 3.18% ( 0.16) 2-3 @ 2.78% ( 0.1) 0-3 @ 1.83% ( 0.12) 1-4 @ 1.06% ( 0.08) 2-4 @ 0.93% ( 0.05) Other @ 2.3% Total : 29.48%