Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Heracles win with a probability of 47.08%. A win for SBV Excelsior had a probability of 30.93% and a draw had a probability of 22%.
The most likely scoreline for a Heracles win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.94%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (6.04%) and 2-0 (5.83%). The likeliest SBV Excelsior win was 1-2 (7.12%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.27%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 7.1% likelihood.