Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Jong Ajax win with a probability of 45.31%. A win for Jong AZ had a probability of 32.54% and a draw had a probability of 22.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Jong Ajax win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.79%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (5.92%) and 2-0 (5.58%). The likeliest Jong AZ win was 1-2 (7.34%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.32%). The actual scoreline of 1-4 was predicted with a 1.5% likelihood.