Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a SBV Excelsior win with a probability of 64.54%. A draw had a probability of 18.1% and a win for Jong AZ had a probability of 17.41%.
The most likely scoreline for a SBV Excelsior win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.29%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-1 (7.64%) and 2-0 (7.59%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.54%), while for a Jong AZ win it was 1-2 (4.62%). The actual scoreline of 4-2 was predicted with a 2.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that SBV Excelsior would win this match.