Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Jong Ajax win with a probability of 45.36%. A win for Jong AZ had a probability of 32.39% and a draw had a probability of 22.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Jong Ajax win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.84%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (6.06%) and 2-0 (5.67%). The likeliest Jong AZ win was 1-2 (7.36%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.44%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 7.4% likelihood.