Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Jong AZ win with a probability of 48.37%. A win for De Graafschap had a probability of 30.18% and a draw had a probability of 21.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Jong AZ win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.84%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-1 (5.96%) and 2-0 (5.64%). The likeliest De Graafschap win was 1-2 (6.87%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (8.76%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 6.9% likelihood.