Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Jong Ajax win with a probability of 43.74%. A win for VVV-Venlo had a probability of 32.67% and a draw had a probability of 23.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Jong Ajax win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.01%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.49%) and 2-0 (6.31%). The likeliest VVV-Venlo win was 1-2 (7.64%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.69%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 6.4% likelihood.