Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Vitesse win with a probability of 61.28%. A win for Jong Ajax had a probability of 19.54% and a draw had a probability of 19.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Vitesse win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.46%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (7.53%) and 3-1 (7.33%). The likeliest Jong Ajax win was 1-2 (5.11%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (8.13%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 5.9% likelihood.