Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Cambuur win with a probability of 46.11%. A win for Jong AZ had a probability of 31.8% and a draw had a probability of 22.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Cambuur win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.87%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (5.99%) and 0-2 (5.7%). The likeliest Jong AZ win was 2-1 (7.24%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.31%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 4.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Cambuur would win this match.