Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Willem II win with a probability of 56.41%. A draw had a probability of 22.4% and a win for MVV Maastricht had a probability of 21.16%.
The most likely scoreline for a Willem II win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.95%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.9%) and 0-2 (9.33%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.55%), while for a MVV Maastricht win it was 1-0 (5.63%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 1.9% likelihood.