Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Dordrecht win with a probability of 41.21%. A win for MVV Maastricht had a probability of 36.08% and a draw had a probability of 22.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Dordrecht win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.51%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (6%) and 0-2 (5.24%). The likeliest MVV Maastricht win was 2-1 (7.91%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.74%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 7.9% likelihood.