Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Dordrecht win with a probability of 50.39%. A win for Helmond Sport had a probability of 27.24% and a draw had a probability of 22.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Dordrecht win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.46%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.41%) and 2-0 (7.03%). The likeliest Helmond Sport win was 1-2 (6.71%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.97%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 2.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Dordrecht would win this match.