Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a MVV Maastricht win with a probability of 47.46%. A win for Helmond Sport had a probability of 29.19% and a draw had a probability of 23.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a MVV Maastricht win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.36%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.01%) and 2-0 (7.03%). The likeliest Helmond Sport win was 1-2 (7.1%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.66%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 7.1% likelihood.