Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Jong FC Utrecht win with a probability of 39.56%. A win for MVV Maastricht had a probability of 34.89% and a draw had a probability of 25.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Jong FC Utrecht win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.16%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.6%) and 2-0 (6.51%). The likeliest MVV Maastricht win was 0-1 (8.5%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.09%). The actual scoreline of 4-3 was predicted with a 0.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Jong FC Utrecht would win this match.