Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a De Graafschap win with a probability of 63.56%. A win for Jong Ajax had a probability of 19.47% and a draw had a probability of 16.97%.
The most likely scoreline for a De Graafschap win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.7%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-1 (7.87%) and 2-0 (6.54%). The likeliest Jong Ajax win was 1-2 (5.52%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (6.62%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 5.8% likelihood.