Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Heracles win with a probability of 48.82%. A win for De Graafschap had a probability of 27.33% and a draw had a probability of 23.8%.

The most likely scoreline for a Heracles win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.52%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (9.14%) and 0-2 (7.81%). The likeliest De Graafschap win was 2-1 (6.8%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.15%). The actual scoreline of 5-3 was predicted with a 0.1% likelihood.

Result
De Graafschap	Draw	Heracles
27.33% ( 0.01)	23.85%	48.82% ( -0.01)

Both teams to score 57.7% (

0.01)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

56.04% (

0.01)

43.96% (

-0.01)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

33.65% (

0.01)

66.35% (

-0.01)

De Graafschap Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

70.47% (

0.01)

29.53% (

-0.01)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

34.45% (

0.02)

65.55% (

-0.01)

Heracles Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

81.87% (

18.13% (

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

50.92% (

49.08% (

Score Analysis

De Graafschap 27.33%

Heracles 48.82%

Draw 23.85%

De Graafschap	Draw	Heracles
2-1 @ 6.8% ( 0) 1-0 @ 6.53% 2-0 @ 3.98% ( 0) 3-1 @ 2.77% ( 0) 3-2 @ 2.36% ( 0) 3-0 @ 1.62% ( 0) Other @ 3.27% Total : 27.33%	1-1 @ 11.15% 2-2 @ 5.81% ( 0) 0-0 @ 5.35% ( -0) 3-3 @ 1.34% ( 0) Other @ 0.19% Total : 23.85%	1-2 @ 9.52% ( -0) 0-1 @ 9.14% ( -0) 0-2 @ 7.81% ( -0) 1-3 @ 5.42% 0-3 @ 4.44% ( -0) 2-3 @ 3.31% 1-4 @ 2.31% 0-4 @ 1.9% ( -0) 2-4 @ 1.41% Other @ 3.56% Total : 48.82%