De Graafschap
KNVB Beker | Quarter-Finals
Mar 2, 2023 at 8pm UK
Stadion De Vijverberg
Ajax

De Graafschap
0 - 3
Ajax

FT(HT: 0-2)
Sanchez (12'), Bergwijn (26'), Brobbey (78')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Thursday's KNVB Beker clash between De Graafschap and Ajax, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

De Graafschap

All competitions
KNVB Beker
Last Game: FC Eindhoven 0-4 De Graafschap
Friday, February 24 at 7pm in Eerste Divisie

Ajax

All competitions
KNVB Beker
Last Game: Vitesse 1-2 Ajax
Sunday, February 26 at 1.30pm in Eredivisie

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ajax win with a probability of 58.61%. A win for De Graafschap had a probability of 20.78% and a draw had a probability of 20.6%.

The most likely scoreline for an Ajax win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.77%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (8.22%) and 0-1 (7.77%). The likeliest De Graafschap win was 2-1 (5.49%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.23%). The actual scoreline of 0-3 was predicted with a 5.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Ajax would win this match.

Result
De GraafschapDrawAjax
20.78% (-0.0079999999999991 -0.01)20.62% (-0.004999999999999 -0)58.61% (0.014999999999993 0.01)
Both teams to score 61.17% (0.0050000000000026 0.01)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
64.16% (0.012 0.01)35.84% (-0.009999999999998 -0.01)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
42.07% (0.012 0.01)57.92% (-0.012 -0.01)
De Graafschap Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
69.55%30.45% (0.0030000000000001 0)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
33.34%66.66% (0.0030000000000001 0)
Ajax Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
87.95% (0.0090000000000003 0.01)12.05% (-0.0079999999999991 -0.01)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
62.45% (0.015000000000001 0.02)37.55% (-0.012999999999998 -0.01)
Score Analysis
    De Graafschap 20.78%
    Ajax 58.61%
    Draw 20.62%
De GraafschapDrawAjax
2-1 @ 5.49% (-0.0019999999999998 -0)
1-0 @ 4.36% (-0.0019999999999998 -0)
2-0 @ 2.59% (-0.0020000000000002 -0)
3-2 @ 2.3%
3-1 @ 2.18%
3-0 @ 1.03% (-0.00099999999999989 -0)
Other @ 2.82%
Total : 20.78%
1-1 @ 9.23% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)
2-2 @ 5.81%
0-0 @ 3.67% (-0.0020000000000002 -0)
3-3 @ 1.62%
Other @ 0.28%
Total : 20.62%
1-2 @ 9.77%
0-2 @ 8.22%
0-1 @ 7.77% (-0.0010000000000003 -0)
1-3 @ 6.89% (0.00099999999999945 0)
0-3 @ 5.8% (0.0019999999999998 0)
2-3 @ 4.1% (0.0010000000000003 0)
1-4 @ 3.65% (0.0020000000000002 0)
0-4 @ 3.07% (0.00099999999999989 0)
2-4 @ 2.17% (0.00099999999999989 0)
1-5 @ 1.54% (0.002 0)
0-5 @ 1.3% (0.00099999999999989 0)
2-5 @ 0.92% (0.001 0)
Other @ 3.44%
Total : 58.61%

How you voted: De Graafschap vs Ajax

De Graafschap
25.0%
Ajax
75.0%
16
Head to Head
May 15, 2019 6.30pm
De Graafschap
1-4
Ajax
El Jebli (40')
Matusiwa (66')
Schone (37'), Tagliafico (44'), Tadic (67' pen., 87')
Dec 16, 2018 1.30pm
Ajax
8-0
De Graafschap
Tadic (18'), Mazraoui (25'), Ziyech (32', 62', 69'), Blind (65', 74', 90')

Serrarens (67')
May 8, 2016 1.30pm
De Graafschap
1-1
Ajax
Smeets (55')
Straalman (77'), Tarfi (90')
Younes (17')
Dec 20, 2015 3.45pm
Ajax
2-1
De Graafschap
Milik (27'), Bazoer (70')
Bazoer (84')
Vida (38')
Tesselaar (47'), Vida (49')