World Cup

World Cup Qualifying - South America | Group Stage

Mar 21, 2025 at 9pm UK

Estadio de Liga Deportiva Universitaria

Ecuador
2 - 1
Venezuela

Valencia (39', 46')
Mercado (65')

FT(HT: 1-0)

Cadiz (90+1')
Vargas (63'), Mejias (78')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Friday's World Cup Qualifying - South America clash between Ecuador and Venezuela, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Ecuador

All competitions

Last Game: Colombia 0-1 Ecuador
Tuesday, November 19 at 11pm in World Cup Qualifying - South America

Current CONMEBOL World Cup qualifying Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Argentina	12	14	25
2	Ecuador	12	7	22
3	Brazil	13	7	21
4	Uruguay	12	8	20
5	Paraguay	13	2	20
6	Colombia	13	4	19
7	Bolivia	12	-14	13
8	Venezuela	12	-4	12
9	Chile	13	-12	9
10	Peru	12	-12	7

Venezuela

All competitions

World Cup Qualifying

Last Game: USA 3-1 Venezuela
Saturday, January 18 at 8pm in International Friendlies

Current CONMEBOL World Cup qualifying Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Argentina	12	14	25
2	Ecuador	12	7	22
3	Brazil	13	7	21
4	Uruguay	12	8	20
5	Paraguay	13	2	20
6	Colombia	13	4	19
7	Bolivia	12	-14	13
8	Venezuela	12	-4	12
9	Chile	13	-12	9
10	Peru	12	-12	7

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ecuador win with a probability of 65.05%. A draw had a probability of 21.6% and a win for Venezuela had a probability of 13.34%.

The most likely scoreline for a Ecuador win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.43%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (13.4%) and 2-1 (9.35%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.06%), while for a Venezuela win it was 0-1 (5.42%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 2-1 win for Ecuador in this match and our data analysis correctly predicted the win for Ecuador.

Result
Ecuador	Draw	Venezuela
65.05% ( -0.3)	21.61% ( 0.2)	13.34% ( 0.11)

Both teams to score 42.36% (

-0.25)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

47% (

-0.51)

53% (

0.52)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

25.41% (

-0.44)

74.59% (

0.44)

Ecuador Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

84.39% (

-0.27)

15.61% (

0.27)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

55.39% (

-0.51)

44.61% (

0.51)

Venezuela Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

50.2% (

-0.14)

49.8% (

0.14)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

15.48% (

-0.1)

84.52% (

0.1)

Score Analysis

Ecuador 65.04%

Venezuela 13.34%

Draw 21.6%

Ecuador	Draw	Venezuela
1-0 @ 14.43% ( 0.15) 2-0 @ 13.4% ( 0.02) 2-1 @ 9.35% ( -0.02) 3-0 @ 8.3% ( -0.07) 3-1 @ 5.79% ( -0.07) 4-0 @ 3.85% ( -0.07) 4-1 @ 2.69% ( -0.06) 3-2 @ 2.02% ( -0.03) 5-0 @ 1.43% ( -0.04) 5-1 @ 1% ( -0.03) 4-2 @ 0.94% ( -0.02) Other @ 1.86% Total : 65.04%	1-1 @ 10.06% ( 0.06) 0-0 @ 7.78% ( 0.16) 2-2 @ 3.26% ( -0.02) Other @ 0.51% Total : 21.6%	0-1 @ 5.42% ( 0.09) 1-2 @ 3.51% ( 0.01) 0-2 @ 1.89% ( 0.02) Other @ 2.52% Total : 13.34%