Club Friendlies 3
Jul 28, 2026 1.00pm
Pride Park Stadium

Derby County vs Valencia - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings

Form, Standings, Stats

Derby County

All competitions
Club Friendlies 3
Last game
Jul 17, 2026 7.00pm
Alfreton 0 - 2 Derby

Valencia

All competitions
Club Friendlies 3
Last game
Jul 25, 2026 7.00pm
Valencia 1 - 2 Castellon

Data analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats, suggests the most likely outcome of this match is a Derby County win with a probability of 39.43%. A win for Valencia has a probability of 32.55% and a draw has a probability of 28.02%.

The most likely scoreline for a Derby County win is 1-0 with a probability of 11.08%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome are 2-1 (8.69%) and 2-0 (6.75%). The likeliest Valencia win is 0-1 (9.48%) , while for a drawn scoreline it is 1-1 (13.24%).

Result

Derby County 39.43% (+0.15)
Draw 28.02% (+0.09)
Valencia 32.55% (-0.20)

Both Teams to Score: 

51.43% (+0.15)

Goals

Over 1.5 70.37% (+0.11)
Under 1.5 29.63% (-0.11)
Over 2.5 45.09% (+0.08)
Under 2.5 54.91% (-0.08)
Over 3.5 23.49% (+0.03)
Under 3.5 76.51% (-0.04)
Over 4.5 12.08% (+0.02)
Under 4.5 87.92% (-0.02)

First Half Winner

Derby County 30.94% (-0.14)
Draw 45.1% (+0.14)
Valencia 23.96% (+0.02)

Team To Score First

Derby County 49.84% (-0.08)
No Goal 9.09% (+0.02)
Valencia 41.07% (+0.07)

Corners

Over 8 58.47% (+0.12)
Equal 8 12.02% (-0.13)
Under 8 29.51%
Over 9 46.12% (+0.24)
Equal 9 12.35% (-0.13)
Under 9 41.53% (-0.12)
Over 10.5 34.56% (+0.34)
Under 10.5 65.44% (-0.33)

Derby County Goals

Over 1.5 35.95% (+0.20)
Under 1.5 64.05% (-0.19)
Over 2.5 13.67% (+0.10)
Under 2.5 86.33% (-0.11)
Over 3.5 4.01% (+0.03)
Under 3.5 95.99% (-0.04)

Valencia Goals

Over 0.5 66.13% (-0.06)
Under 0.5 33.87% (+0.05)
Over 1.5 31.05% (-0.06)
Under 1.5 68.95% (+0.05)
Over 2.5 10.84% (-0.06)
Under 2.5 89.16% (+0.05)
Over 3.5 3.17% (-0.04)
Under 3.5 96.83% (+0.04)

Score analysis

Derby County 39.44%
Draw 28.03%
Valencia 32.55%
Derby County
1-0 @ 11.08% (+0.02)
2-1 @ 8.69% (+0.05)
2-0 @ 6.75% (+0.04)
3-1 @ 3.67% (+0.01)
3-0 @ 2.97% (+0.03)
3-2 @ 2.28% (+0.01)
Other @ 4% (+0.03)
Total : 39.44%
Draw
1-1 @ 13.24% (+0.01)
0-0 @ 9.09% (+0.02)
2-2 @ 4.95% (+0.04)
Other @ 0.01%
Total : 28.03%
Valencia
0-1 @ 9.48% (-0.08)
1-2 @ 7.7% (-0.02)
0-2 @ 5.28% (-0.02)
1-3 @ 2.8% (-0.03)
0-3 @ 2.24% (-0.01)
2-3 @ 1.89% (-0.03)
Other @ 3.16% (-0.03)
Total : 32.55%