/https%3A%2F%2Fsportsmole-media-prod.s3.gra.io.cloud.ovh.net%2F19%2F06%2Fderlog.png)
/https%3A%2F%2Fsportsmole-media-prod.s3.gra.io.cloud.ovh.net%2F19%2F10%2Flinlog.png)
-
Lewis Travis
35'
-
Sammie Szmodics
45'+1'
-
Ben House
3'
-
Dom Jefferies
23'
-
Adam Reach
32'
-
Ben House
48'
Derby County vs Lincoln City - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings
The match
Match Preview
/https%3A%2F%2Fsportsmole-media-prod.s3.gra.io.cloud.ovh.net%2Fuploads%2F2026%2F01%2Fjohn-eustace-derby-county-every-second-media-696c2db4439f3039429399.jpg)
Data analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lincoln City win with a probability of 39.95%. A win for Derby County had a probability of 33.69% and a draw had a probability of 26.36%.
The most likely scoreline for a Lincoln City win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.19%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.3%) and 0-2 (7.29%). The likeliest Derby County win was 1-0 (9.48%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.5%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with an 8.3% likelihood.
Result
Derby County
33.69%
▼
(-0.03)
Draw
26.36%
▲
(+0.04)
Lincoln City
39.95%
Both Teams to Score:
49.7%
▲
(+0.11)
Goals
Over 1.5
70.84%
▲
(+0.05)
Under 1.5
29.16%
▼
(-0.04)
Over 2.5
45.33%
▲
(+0.01)
Under 2.5
54.67%
▼
(-0.01)
Over 3.5
24.46%
Under 3.5
75.54%
Over 4.5
13.47%
▲
(+0.01)
Under 4.5
86.53%
▼
(-0.02)
First Half Winner
Derby County
24.14%
▲
(+0.02)
Draw
44.76%
▼
(-0.02)
Lincoln City
31.1%
▼
(-0.01)
Team To Score First
Derby County
41.83%
▲
(+0.02)
No Goal
8.52%
Lincoln City
49.65%
▼
(-0.03)
Corners
Over 8
51.34%
▲
(+0.02)
Equal 8
12.18%
▲
(+0.01)
Under 8
36.49%
▼
(-0.01)
Over 9
39.55%
▲
(+0.01)
Equal 9
11.79%
Under 9
48.66%
▼
(-0.02)
Over 10.5
29.07%
Under 10.5
70.93%
Derby County Goals
Over 1.5
31.65%
▲
(+0.02)
Under 1.5
68.35%
▼
(-0.03)
Over 2.5
12.06%
▲
(+0.01)
Under 2.5
87.94%
▼
(-0.02)
Over 3.5
3.53%
Under 3.5
96.47%
Lincoln City Goals
Over 0.5
70.31%
▲
(+0.05)
Under 0.5
29.69%
▼
(-0.04)
Over 1.5
36.27%
▲
(+0.03)
Under 1.5
63.73%
▼
(-0.03)
Over 2.5
13.97%
▲
(+0.01)
Under 2.5
86.03%
▼
(-0.02)
Over 3.5
4.93%
Under 3.5
95.07%
Score analysis
Derby County
33.71%
Draw
26.37%
Lincoln City
39.95%
Derby County
1-0
@
9.48%
2-1 @ 7.27% ▲ (+0.01)
2-0 @ 5.7%
3-1 @ 3.08%
3-0 @ 2.5%
3-2 @ 2.16%
Other @ 3.52%
Total : 33.71%
2-1 @ 7.27% ▲ (+0.01)
2-0 @ 5.7%
3-1 @ 3.08%
3-0 @ 2.5%
3-2 @ 2.16%
Other @ 3.52%
Total : 33.71%
Draw
1-1
@
12.5%
▲
(+0.01)
0-0 @ 8.52%
2-2 @ 4.55%
Other @ 0.01%
Total : 26.37%
0-0 @ 8.52%
2-2 @ 4.55%
Other @ 0.01%
Total : 26.37%
Lincoln City
0-1
@
11.19%
1-2 @ 8.3% ▲ (+0.02)
0-2 @ 7.29%
1-3 @ 3.37%
0-3 @ 2.81%
2-3 @ 2.07%
Other @ 4.92%
Total : 39.95%
1-2 @ 8.3% ▲ (+0.02)
0-2 @ 7.29%
1-3 @ 3.37%
0-3 @ 2.81%
2-3 @ 2.07%
Other @ 4.92%
Total : 39.95%