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UEFA Nations League

Denmark national football team
Nations League | Quarter-Finals | 1st Leg
Mar 20, 2025 at 7.45pm UK
Parken
Portugal national football team

Denmark
1 - 0
Portugal

Hojlund (78')
FT(HT: 0-0)

Dalot (57'), Vitinha (59')

The Match

Match Report

Rasmus Hojlund proves the hero, coming off the bench to secure Denmark's 1-0 victory over Portugal in Thursday's UEFA Nations League quarter-final first leg.

Preview

Sports Mole previews Thursday's Nations League clash between Denmark and Portugal, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Predicted Lineups

Sports Mole takes an in-depth look at how Portugal could line up for Thursday's UEFA Nations League quarter-final first-leg clash with Denmark.

Form, Standings, Stats

Denmark

All competitions
Last Game: Serbia 0-0 Denmark
Monday, November 18 at 7.45pm in Nations League

Portugal

All competitions
Last Game: Croatia 1-1 Portugal
Monday, November 18 at 7.45pm in Nations League

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Portugal win with a probability of 42.11%. A win for Denmark had a probability of 32.14% and a draw had a probability of 25.8%.

The most likely scoreline for a Portugal win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.93%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.86%) and 0-2 (7.19%). The likeliest Denmark win was 1-0 (8.45%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.23%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with an 8.4% likelihood.

Result
DenmarkDrawPortugal
32.14% (0.208 0.21)25.75% (-0.024000000000001 -0.02)42.11% (-0.183 -0.18)
Both teams to score 54.19% (0.16 0.16)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
50.15% (0.171 0.17)49.84% (-0.17 -0.17)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
28.15% (0.153 0.15)71.84% (-0.152 -0.15)
Denmark Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
70.83% (0.223 0.22)29.17% (-0.222 -0.22)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
34.89% (0.275 0.27)65.1% (-0.274 -0.27)
Portugal Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
76.5% (-0.015000000000001 -0.02)23.5% (0.015999999999998 0.02)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
42.47% (-0.021999999999998 -0.02)57.53% (0.021999999999998 0.02)
Score Analysis
    Denmark 32.14%
    Portugal 42.11%
    Draw 25.75%
DenmarkDrawPortugal
1-0 @ 8.45% (-0.0060000000000002 -0.01)
2-1 @ 7.54% (0.038 0.04)
2-0 @ 5.2% (0.028 0.03)
3-1 @ 3.1% (0.035 0.04)
3-2 @ 2.24% (0.024 0.02)
3-0 @ 2.14% (0.025 0.02)
4-1 @ 0.95% (0.016 0.02)
Other @ 2.53%
Total : 32.14%
1-1 @ 12.23% (-0.0099999999999998 -0.01)
0-0 @ 6.85% (-0.047 -0.05)
2-2 @ 5.46% (0.024 0.02)
3-3 @ 1.08% (0.011 0.01)
Other @ 0.13%
Total : 25.75%
0-1 @ 9.93% (-0.074 -0.07)
1-2 @ 8.86% (-0.015000000000001 -0.02)
0-2 @ 7.19% (-0.056999999999999 -0.06)
1-3 @ 4.28% (-0.0089999999999995 -0.01)
0-3 @ 3.47% (-0.029 -0.03)
2-3 @ 2.63% (0.011 0.01)
1-4 @ 1.55% (-0.004 -0)
0-4 @ 1.26% (-0.011 -0.01)
2-4 @ 0.95% (0.004 0)
Other @ 2%
Total : 42.11%

How you voted: Denmark vs Portugal

Denmark
10.0%
Draw
12.1%
Portugal
77.9%
290
Head to Head
Oct 8, 2015 7.45pm
Qualifiers
Portugal
1-0
Denmark
> Match Report
Oct 14, 2014 7.45pm
Qualifiers
Denmark
0-1
Portugal
Ronaldo (95')
Ronaldo (92')
> Match Report
Jun 13, 2012 5pm
Group Stage
Denmark
2-3
Portugal