Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Universitario win with a probability of 59.34%. A draw had a probability of 23.6% and a win for Gimnasia had a probability of 17.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Universitario win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.87%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.93%) and 2-1 (9.52%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.06%), while for a Gimnasia win it was 0-1 (6.44%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 13.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Universitario in this match.