Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Universitario win with a probability of 59.34%. A draw had a probability of 23.6% and a win for Gimnasia had a probability of 17.1%.

The most likely scoreline for a Universitario win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.87%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.93%) and 2-1 (9.52%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.06%), while for a Gimnasia win it was 0-1 (6.44%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 13.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Universitario in this match.

Result
Universitario	Draw	Gimnasia
59.34% ( -0.09)	23.56% ( 0.04)	17.1% ( 0.05)

Both teams to score 45.11% (

-0.02)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

46.05% (

-0.08)

53.95% (

0.08)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

24.6% (

-0.07)

75.39% (

0.07)

Universitario Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

82.08% (

-0.06)

17.91% (

0.06)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

51.28% (

-0.11)

48.72% (

0.11)

Gimnasia Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

54.95% (

0.02)

45.05% (

-0.02)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

19.03% (

0.01)

80.97% (

-0.01)

Score Analysis

Universitario 59.33%

Gimnasia 17.1%

Draw 23.56%

Universitario	Draw	Gimnasia
1-0 @ 13.87% ( 0.01) 2-0 @ 11.93% ( -0.01) 2-1 @ 9.52% ( -0) 3-0 @ 6.84% ( -0.02) 3-1 @ 5.45% ( -0.01) 4-0 @ 2.94% ( -0.02) 4-1 @ 2.35% ( -0.01) 3-2 @ 2.18% ( -0) 5-0 @ 1.01% ( -0.01) 4-2 @ 0.94% ( -0) Other @ 2.32% Total : 59.33%	1-1 @ 11.06% ( 0.02) 0-0 @ 8.07% ( 0.03) 2-2 @ 3.79% Other @ 0.63% Total : 23.56%	0-1 @ 6.44% ( 0.02) 1-2 @ 4.41% ( 0.01) 0-2 @ 2.57% ( 0.01) 1-3 @ 1.17% ( 0) 2-3 @ 1.01% Other @ 1.5% Total : 17.1%