Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Caracas win with a probability of 40.91%. A win for Independiente Petrolero had a probability of 34.41% and a draw had a probability of 24.64%.
The most likely scoreline for a Caracas win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.92%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.67%) and 0-2 (6.4%). The likeliest Independiente Petrolero win was 2-1 (7.94%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.31%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 3.2% likelihood.