Copa Libertadores | Group Stage

May 27, 2025 at 11.30pm UK

Estadio Dr. Nicolas Leoz

Libertad
2 - 2
Alianza Lima

Cardozo (45+5' pen.), Ramirez (63')
Jacquet (40'), Cardozo (82')

FT(HT: 1-2)

Guerrero (28'), Castillo (42')
Garces (45+3'), Lagos (81')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Tuesday's Copa Libertadores clash between Club Libertad and Alianza Lima, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Club Libertad

Last Game: Sao Paulo 1-1 Libertad
Thursday, May 15 at 1.30am in Copa Libertadores

Alianza Lima

Last Game: Talleres 2-0 Alianza Lima
Thursday, May 15 at 11pm in Copa Libertadores

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Club Libertad win with a probability of 40.81%. A win for Alianza Lima had a probability of 31.84% and a draw had a probability of 27.4%.

The most likely scoreline for a Club Libertad win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.56%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.44%) and 2-0 (7.54%). The likeliest Alianza Lima win was 0-1 (9.92%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.93%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 4.7% likelihood.

Result
Club Libertad	Draw	Alianza Lima
40.81% ( 2.26)	27.36% ( 0.1)	31.84% ( -2.36)

Both teams to score 49.06% (

-0.87)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

43.63% (

-0.84)

56.37% (

0.84)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

22.61% (

-0.68)

77.39% (

0.68)

Club Libertad Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

72.87% (

0.87)

27.13% (

-0.87)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

37.48% (

1.12)

62.52% (

-1.12)

Alianza Lima Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

67.32% (

-2.02)

32.68% (

2.02)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

30.78% (

-2.32)

69.22% (

2.33)

Score Analysis

Club Libertad 40.8%

Alianza Lima 31.84%

Draw 27.35%

Club Libertad	Draw	Alianza Lima
1-0 @ 11.56% ( 0.64) 2-1 @ 8.44% ( 0.21) 2-0 @ 7.54% ( 0.59) 3-1 @ 3.67% ( 0.18) 3-0 @ 3.28% ( 0.33) 3-2 @ 2.05% ( -0.01) 4-1 @ 1.2% ( 0.09) 4-0 @ 1.07% ( 0.13) Other @ 1.99% Total : 40.8%	1-1 @ 12.93% ( 0.02) 0-0 @ 8.87% ( 0.28) 2-2 @ 4.72% ( -0.14) Other @ 0.84% Total : 27.35%	0-1 @ 9.92% ( -0.22) 1-2 @ 7.24% ( -0.4) 0-2 @ 5.55% ( -0.45) 1-3 @ 2.7% ( -0.31) 0-3 @ 2.07% ( -0.3) 2-3 @ 1.76% ( -0.16) Other @ 2.61% Total : 31.84%