Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Talleres win with a probability of 54.78%. A draw had a probability of 25.1% and a win for Alianza Lima had a probability of 20.15%.
The most likely scoreline for a Talleres win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.73%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.95%) and 2-1 (9.39%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.77%), while for an Alianza Lima win it was 0-1 (7.38%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 11% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Talleres would win this match.