Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Alianza Lima win with a probability of 36.75%. A win for Talleres had a probability of 34.46% and a draw had a probability of 28.8%.
The most likely scoreline for an Alianza Lima win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.14%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (7.64%) and 2-0 (6.95%). The likeliest Talleres win was 0-1 (11.66%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.34%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 1.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Alianza Lima would win this match.