Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Palmeiras win with a probability of 55.65%. A draw had a probability of 22.8% and a win for Sao Paulo had a probability of 21.55%.
The most likely scoreline for a Palmeiras win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.22%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.87%) and 2-0 (9.38%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.76%), while for a Sao Paulo win it was 0-1 (5.87%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Palmeiras would win this match.