Copa do Brasil | Round of 16 | 2nd Leg

Jul 15, 2022 at 12am UK

Allianz Parque

Palmeiras
2 - 1
Sao Paulo

(2-2 on aggregate)

Piquerez (10'), Veiga (13')
Veiga (30'), Gomez (69'), Rocha (90+2')

FT(HT: 2-0)

Luciano (69' pen., 70' pen.)
Welington (5'), Neves (45'), Nestor (56'), Calleri (64'), Nikao (87')

Sao Paulo win 4-3 on penalties

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Thursday's Copa do Brasil clash between Palmeiras and Sao Paulo, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Palmeiras

Last Six:

Last Game: Fortaleza 0-0 Palmeiras
Sunday, July 10 at 10pm in Brasileiro

Current League Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Palmeiras	16	15	30
2	Corinthians	16	4	29
3	Internacional	16	8	28

Sao Paulo

Last Six:

Last Game: Atletico Mineiro 0-0 Sao Paulo
Sunday, July 10 at 10pm in Brasileiro

Current League Standings		P	GD	PTS
6	Athletico Paranaense	16	3	27
7	Sao Paulo	16	4	23
8	Santos	16	5	22

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Palmeiras win with a probability of 55.65%. A draw had a probability of 22.8% and a win for Sao Paulo had a probability of 21.55%.

The most likely scoreline for a Palmeiras win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.22%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.87%) and 2-0 (9.38%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.76%), while for a Sao Paulo win it was 0-1 (5.87%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Palmeiras would win this match.

Result
Palmeiras	Draw	Sao Paulo
55.65% ( 3.53)	22.8% ( -1.15)	21.55% ( -2.38)

Both teams to score 54.7% (

0.71)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

55.09% (

2.4)

44.9% (

-2.4)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

32.74% (

2.27)

67.26% (

-2.27)

Palmeiras Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

84.01% (

2.15)

15.98% (

-2.15)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

54.71% (

3.8)

45.29% (

-3.81)

Sao Paulo Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

65.11% (

-0.84)

34.89% (

0.84)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

28.37% (

-0.9)

71.63% (

0.89)

Score Analysis

Palmeiras 55.64%

Sao Paulo 21.55%

Draw 22.79%

Palmeiras	Draw	Sao Paulo
1-0 @ 10.22% ( -0.32) 2-1 @ 9.87% ( 0.18) 2-0 @ 9.38% ( 0.38) 3-1 @ 6.03% ( 0.52) 3-0 @ 5.73% ( 0.61) 3-2 @ 3.18% ( 0.2) 4-1 @ 2.77% ( 0.41) 4-0 @ 2.63% ( 0.44) 4-2 @ 1.46% ( 0.19) 5-1 @ 1.01% ( 0.21) 5-0 @ 0.96% ( 0.22) Other @ 2.41% Total : 55.64%	1-1 @ 10.76% ( -0.59) 0-0 @ 5.58% ( -0.6) 2-2 @ 5.2% ( -0.03) 3-3 @ 1.12% ( 0.05) Other @ 0.15% Total : 22.79%	0-1 @ 5.87% ( -0.78) 1-2 @ 5.67% ( -0.45) 0-2 @ 3.09% ( -0.49) 1-3 @ 1.99% ( -0.21) 2-3 @ 1.82% ( -0.05) 0-3 @ 1.09% ( -0.2) Other @ 2.02% Total : 21.55%