Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a El Salvador win with a probability of 64.81%. A draw had a probability of 20.3% and a win for Montserrat had a probability of 14.91%.
The most likely scoreline for a El Salvador win was 0-2 with a probability of 11.43%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (11.19%) and 1-2 (9.85%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.64%), while for a Montserrat win it was 1-0 (4.72%). The actual scoreline of 1-4 was predicted with a 3.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that El Salvador would win this match.