Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Nicaragua win with a probability of 83.15%. A draw had a probability of 12% and a win for Montserrat had a probability of 4.88%.
The most likely scoreline for a Nicaragua win was 2-0 with a probability of 14.72%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-0 (13.17%) and 1-0 (10.96%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (5.62%), while for a Montserrat win it was 0-1 (2.09%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 13.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Nicaragua would win this match.