Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Shanghai Shenhua win with a probability of 56.87%. A draw had a probability of 22.69% and a win for Shenyang Urban had a probability of 20.38%.
The most likely scoreline for a Shanghai Shenhua win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.07%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.75%) and 2-1 (9.53%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.3%) , while for a Shenyang Urban win it was 0-1 (5.81%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 5.8% likelihood.