Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Chengdu Qianbao win with a probability of 43.51%. A win for Changchun Yatai had a probability of 30.26% and a draw had a probability of 26.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Chengdu Qianbao win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.89%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.91%) and 2-0 (7.78%). The likeliest Changchun Yatai win was 0-1 (8.74%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.47%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 5.1% likelihood.