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Chapecoense
Brasileiro | Gameweek 26
Oct 13, 2021 at 11pm UK
Arena Conda
Athletico Paranaense

Chapecoense
1 - 1
Athletico PR

Ribeiro (58')
Rodriguinho (12'), Leite (44'), Ribeiro (46'), Busanello (63')
FT(HT: 0-0)
Christian (89')
Ivaldo (44'), Nikao (46'), Richard (46'), Heleno (53'), Pedrinho (88')

Preview: Chapecoense vs. Athletico Paranaense - prediction, team news, lineups

Sports Mole previews Wednesday's Brasileiro clash between Chapecoense and Athletico Paranaense, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Basement club Chapecoense will be seeking their first home victory of the campaign when they face Athletico Paranaense at the Arena Conda on Wednesday.

The hosts have won only one of their 25 Brasileiro matches so far this term, while the visitors will be looking to secure their 11th victory, as they aim to finish inside the top six.


Match preview

Chapecoense manager Jair Ventura on June 6, 2021© Reuters

Chapecoense suffered their 15th league defeat of the season when they were beaten 5-2 away against Internacional last weekend.

A first-half hat-trick from Yuri Alberto as well as an early strike from Taison gave the hosts a four-goal cushion heading into the break. Chapecoense striker Mike managed to score a brace either side of Matheus Cadorini's second-half strike, though it was not enough to come away from the Estadio Jose Pinheiro Borda with any points.

Pintado's men remain rooted to the foot of the table, 16 points adrift from safety and it is seemingly only a matter of time before their relegation to the second tier is confirmed.

Chapecoense head into Wednesday's encounter having never lost a game at the Arena Conda against Atletico Paranaense, winning twice and drawing five.

The Verdao are the only Brasileiro side who have yet to claim all three points on home soil this season, though Pintado is hopeful that their 12-game winless run can finally come to an end in midweek.

Athletico Paranaense's Pedro Rocha celebrates scoring their second goal with teammates on October 1, 2021© Reuters

Athletico Paranaense's six-game unbeaten home run was brought to an end by Bahia, who secured a 2-0 victory last weekend.

Goals either side of half time from Rai Nascimento and Gilberto condemned the Furacao to their 11th league defeat of the campaign, more than any other Brasileiro side currently outside the relegation zone.

Fortunately for Alberto Valentim's side, they are positioned seven points clear of the bottom four, with last Saturday's opponents Bahia currently occupying the final relegation place.

Paranaense have endured an inconsistent domestic campaign on the whole, though in their last eight league matches they have managed to claim 18 points from a possible 24 available, which has left them in with a fighting chance to secure Copa Libertadores football next season.

Valentim will be confident that his side can return to winning ways against basement club Chapecoense on Wednesday, though they have only won one of their last seven meetings against them.

Chapecoense Brasileiro form:
  • W
  • L
  • L
  • D
  • D
  • L

Athletico Paranaense Brasileiro form:
  • L
  • W
  • W
  • L
  • W
  • L

Athletico Paranaense form (all competitions):
  • W
  • W
  • W
  • L
  • W
  • L


Team News

Athletico Paranaense's Matheus Babi celebrates scoring their first goal on 13 June, 2021© Reuters

Chapecoense have had to cope with an injury crisis in recent weeks, with nine players currently on the treatment table. Seven of these players, however, could return before the end of October.

Joilson, Perotti, Leo Gomes, Kadu and Anselmo Ramon are all suffering with thigh injuries, while Alan Santos (shoulder), Tiepo (knee), Vagner (knee) and Felipe Santana (Achilles) are also unavailable for selection.

Left-back Busanello is expected to return to the starting lineup ahead of Mancha, while either Anderson Leite or Lima could start in central midfield alongside Moises Ribeiro.

As for Paranaense, Matheus Babi (knee) and Lucas Halter (foot) have been ruled out for the rest of the season, though Abner is hoping to return some time this month from an unspecified problem.

Valentim is unlikely to make too many changes, if any, to his starting lineup, which is set to see Pedro Henrique, Thiago Heleno and Ze Ivaldo retain their places in the back three.

Central midfielder Erick was handed a start last weekend, though he could be dropped to the bench with Christian or Leo Cittadini expected to replace him in the first XI.

Chapecoense possible starting lineup:
Paulo; Ribeiro, Ignacio, Jordan, Busanello; Geuvanio, Leite, Junior, Melz; Silva, Mike

Athletico Paranaense possible starting lineup:
Santos; Ivaldo, Helano, Henrique; Marcinho, Christian, Richard, Vichiatto; Nikao, Terans; Bissoli


SM words green background

We say: Chapecoense 1-3 Athletico Paranaense

Paranaense have struggled to break down Chapecoense in their last four meetings against them, though that run could end on Wednesday as the hosts have several players out injured.

With the visitors having more to play for at this stage of the campaign, we expect them to claim all three points away from home.



Top tip

Our expert tipster partners at Sporita.com are predicting under 3.5 goals in this match. Click here to find out what else they are predicting for this game and for more of their tried-and-tested football tips.Under 3.5:data



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Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Athletico Paranaense win with a probability of 36.75%. A win for Chapecoense had a probability of 34.01% and a draw had a probability of 29.2%.

The most likely scoreline for an Athletico Paranaense win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.59%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (7.51%) and 0-2 (7.05%). The likeliest Chapecoense win was 1-0 (11.98%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.41%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 13.4% likelihood.


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Game History

How you voted: Chapecoense vs Athletico PR

Chapecoense
9.5%
Draw
19.0%
Athletico Paranaense
71.4%
21
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