Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Watford win with a probability of 42.47%. A win for Sunderland had a probability of 32.1% and a draw had a probability of 25.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Watford win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.59%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.93%) and 2-0 (7.11%). The likeliest Sunderland win was 0-1 (8.13%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.04%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Watford would win this match.