Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Watford win with a probability of 53.55%. A win for Plymouth Argyle had a probability of 23.85% and a draw had a probability of 22.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Watford win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.78%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.9%) and 2-0 (8.32%). The likeliest Plymouth Argyle win was 1-2 (6.15%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.46%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with an 8.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Watford would win this match.