Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Middlesbrough win with a probability of 38.52%. A win for Sunderland had a probability of 35.42% and a draw had a probability of 26.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Middlesbrough win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.56%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.43%) and 0-2 (6.51%). The likeliest Sunderland win was 1-0 (9.09%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.37%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 9.1% likelihood.