Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sunderland win with a probability of 47.63%. A win for Plymouth Argyle had a probability of 28.74% and a draw had a probability of 23.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sunderland win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.41%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.47%) and 0-2 (7.3%). The likeliest Plymouth Argyle win was 2-1 (7.04%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.92%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 2.6% likelihood.