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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sunderland win with a probability of 46.33%. A win for Millwall had a probability of 27.14% and a draw had a probability of 26.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sunderland win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.15%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.02%) and 2-0 (8.73%). The likeliest Millwall win was 0-1 (8.74%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.55%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 4.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Sunderland would win this match.
Result | ||
Sunderland | Draw | Millwall |
46.33% ( -0.15) | 26.52% ( -0.29) | 27.14% ( 0.43) |
Both teams to score 49.09% ( 1.13) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
44.83% ( 1.31) | 55.16% ( -1.32) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
23.59% ( 1.07) | 76.41% ( -1.07) |
Sunderland Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
76.22% ( 0.5) | 23.78% ( -0.51) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
42.07% ( 0.72) | 57.93% ( -0.72) |
Millwall Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
64.41% ( 1.07) | 35.59% ( -1.08) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
27.64% ( 1.09) | 72.36% ( -1.09) |
Score Analysis |
Sunderland | Draw | Millwall |
1-0 @ 12.15% ( -0.45) 2-1 @ 9.02% ( 0.07) 2-0 @ 8.73% ( -0.19) 3-1 @ 4.32% ( 0.1) 3-0 @ 4.18% ( -0.03) 3-2 @ 2.23% ( 0.11) 4-1 @ 1.55% ( 0.06) 4-0 @ 1.5% ( 0.01) Other @ 2.65% Total : 46.33% | 1-1 @ 12.55% ( -0.09) 0-0 @ 8.46% ( -0.44) 2-2 @ 4.66% ( 0.17) Other @ 0.84% Total : 26.51% | 0-1 @ 8.74% ( -0.19) 1-2 @ 6.49% ( 0.14) 0-2 @ 4.52% ( 0.03) 1-3 @ 2.23% ( 0.11) 2-3 @ 1.6% ( 0.1) 0-3 @ 1.56% ( 0.06) Other @ 2% Total : 27.14% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Sheffield UnitedSheff Utd | 21 | 14 | 5 | 2 | 30 | 11 | 19 | 45 |
2 | Leeds UnitedLeeds | 21 | 12 | 6 | 3 | 37 | 15 | 22 | 42 |
3 | Sunderland | 21 | 11 | 7 | 3 | 32 | 17 | 15 | 40 |
4 | Burnley | 20 | 10 | 8 | 2 | 24 | 7 | 17 | 38 |
5 | Blackburn RoversBlackburn | 20 | 11 | 4 | 5 | 25 | 17 | 8 | 37 |
6 | Middlesbrough | 21 | 10 | 4 | 7 | 35 | 25 | 10 | 34 |
7 | West Bromwich AlbionWest Brom | 20 | 7 | 11 | 2 | 23 | 14 | 9 | 32 |
8 | Watford | 19 | 9 | 4 | 6 | 27 | 25 | 2 | 31 |
9 | Sheffield WednesdaySheff Weds | 21 | 8 | 5 | 8 | 26 | 30 | -4 | 29 |
10 | Swansea CitySwansea | 21 | 7 | 6 | 8 | 23 | 22 | 1 | 27 |
11 | Bristol City | 21 | 6 | 9 | 6 | 26 | 26 | 0 | 27 |
12 | Norwich CityNorwich | 20 | 6 | 8 | 6 | 35 | 30 | 5 | 26 |
13 | Millwall | 20 | 6 | 7 | 7 | 20 | 18 | 2 | 25 |
14 | Derby CountyDerby | 21 | 6 | 6 | 9 | 26 | 26 | 0 | 24 |
15 | Coventry CityCoventry | 21 | 6 | 6 | 9 | 27 | 30 | -3 | 24 |
16 | Preston North EndPreston | 21 | 4 | 11 | 6 | 21 | 27 | -6 | 23 |
17 | Stoke CityStoke | 21 | 5 | 7 | 9 | 23 | 28 | -5 | 22 |
18 | Queens Park RangersQPR | 21 | 4 | 10 | 7 | 21 | 27 | -6 | 22 |
19 | Luton TownLuton | 21 | 6 | 4 | 11 | 23 | 37 | -14 | 22 |
20 | Oxford UnitedOxford Utd | 20 | 4 | 6 | 10 | 21 | 33 | -12 | 18 |
21 | Cardiff CityCardiff | 20 | 4 | 6 | 10 | 19 | 32 | -13 | 18 |
22 | Portsmouth | 19 | 3 | 8 | 8 | 21 | 34 | -13 | 17 |
23 | Plymouth ArgylePlymouth | 20 | 4 | 5 | 11 | 19 | 42 | -23 | 17 |
24 | Hull City | 21 | 3 | 7 | 11 | 19 | 30 | -11 | 16 |
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