Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Coventry City win with a probability of 55%. A draw had a probability of 23.1% and a win for Stoke City had a probability of 21.91%.
The most likely scoreline for a Coventry City win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.4%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.84%) and 2-0 (9.38%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.92%), while for a Stoke City win it was 0-1 (6.06%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 3.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Coventry City would win this match.