/https%3A%2F%2Fsportsmole-media-prod.s3.gra.io.cloud.ovh.net%2F20%2F53%2Fburlog_1.png)
/https%3A%2F%2Fsportsmole-media-prod.s3.gra.io.cloud.ovh.net%2F19%2F10%2Flutlog.png)
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Josh Cullen
16'
-
Mark McGuinness
30'
-
Lyle Foster
39'
-
Lucas Pires
41'
-
Josh Brownhill
53'
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Maxime Esteve
89'
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Ashley Barnes
90'+4'
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Kal Naismith
12'
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Kal Naismith
19'
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Jordan Clark
53'
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Zack Nelson
80'
Burnley vs Luton Town - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings
The match
Match Preview
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Form, Standings, Stats
Data analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Burnley win with a probability of 62.54%. A draw had a probability of 22.6% and a win for Luton Town had a probability of 14.86%.
The most likely scoreline for a Burnley win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.39%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (12.85%) and 2-1 (9.41%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.54%), while for a Luton Town win it was 0-1 (5.91%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 3.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Burnley would win this match.
Result
Burnley
62.54%
▲
(+0.92)
Draw
22.6%
▼
(-0.43)
Luton Town
14.86%
▼
(-0.50)
Both Teams to Score:
43.22%
▲
(+0.09)
Goals
Over 2.5
46.07%
▲
(+0.73)
Under 2.5
53.93%
▼
(-0.73)
Over 3.5
24.62%
▲
(+0.61)
Under 3.5
75.38%
▼
(-0.61)
Over 4.5
11.12%
▲
(+0.38)
Under 4.5
88.88%
▼
(-0.38)
Burnley Goals
Over 0.5
83.22%
▲
(+0.58)
Under 0.5
16.78%
▼
(-0.58)
Over 1.5
53.27%
▲
(+1.02)
Under 1.5
46.73%
▼
(-1.02)
Luton Town Goals
Over 0.5
51.93%
▼
(-0.26)
Under 0.5
48.07%
▲
(+0.26)
Over 1.5
16.72%
▼
(-0.20)
Under 1.5
83.28%
▲
(+0.19)
Score analysis
Burnley
62.54%
Draw
22.6%
Luton Town
14.86%
Burnley
1-0
@
14.39%
▼
(-0.13)
2-0 @ 12.85% ▲ (+0.13)
2-1 @ 9.41% ▲ (+0.03)
3-0 @ 7.65% ▲ (+0.22)
3-1 @ 5.6% ▲ (+0.12)
4-0 @ 3.41% ▲ (+0.16)
4-1 @ 2.5% ▲ (+0.10)
3-2 @ 2.05% ▲ (+0.03)
5-0 @ 1.22% ▲ (+0.08)
Other @ 3.45%
Total : 62.54%
2-0 @ 12.85% ▲ (+0.13)
2-1 @ 9.41% ▲ (+0.03)
3-0 @ 7.65% ▲ (+0.22)
3-1 @ 5.6% ▲ (+0.12)
4-0 @ 3.41% ▲ (+0.16)
4-1 @ 2.5% ▲ (+0.10)
3-2 @ 2.05% ▲ (+0.03)
5-0 @ 1.22% ▲ (+0.08)
Other @ 3.45%
Total : 62.54%
Draw
1-1
@
10.54%
▼
(-0.19)
0-0 @ 8.06% ▼ (-0.24)
2-2 @ 3.45% ▼ (-0.02)
Other @ 0.54%
Total : 22.6%
0-0 @ 8.06% ▼ (-0.24)
2-2 @ 3.45% ▼ (-0.02)
Other @ 0.54%
Total : 22.6%
Luton Town
0-1
@
5.91%
▼
(-0.22)
1-2 @ 3.86% ▼ (-0.10)
0-2 @ 2.16% ▼ (-0.10)
Other @ 2.92%
Total : 14.86%
1-2 @ 3.86% ▼ (-0.10)
0-2 @ 2.16% ▼ (-0.10)
Other @ 2.92%
Total : 14.86%