Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Barnsley win with a probability of 36.34%. A win for Stoke City had a probability of 35.97% and a draw had a probability of 27.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Barnsley win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.95%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (7.85%) and 2-0 (6.58%). The likeliest Stoke City win was 0-1 (10.88%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.07%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 13.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 1-1 draw for this match.