Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Middlesbrough win with a probability of 41.85%. A win for Barnsley had a probability of 29.68% and a draw had a probability of 28.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Middlesbrough win was 0-1 with a probability of 13.15%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.22%) and 0-2 (8.2%). The likeliest Barnsley win was 1-0 (10.56%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.18%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 1.4% likelihood.