Champions League

Champions League | Quarter-Finals | 1st Leg

Apr 9, 2025 at 8pm UK

Estadi Olimpic Lluis Companys

Barcelona
4 - 0
Dortmund

(Barcelona win 5-3 on aggregate)

Raphinha (25'), Lewandowski (48', 66'), Yamal (77')

FT(HT: 1-0)

Adeyemi (24'), Guirassy (74')

Reaction

Barcelona attacker Lamine Yamal on March 11, 2025

Barcelona 4-0 Borussia Dortmund: Did wonderkid Lamine Yamal pick up an injury in Champions League contest?

Barcelona head coach Hansi Flick says that fatigue led to Lamine Yamal's withdrawal in the latter stages of Wednesday's Champions League clash with Borussia Dortmund.

Apr 10, 08:16

Raphinha after scoring for Barcelona on March 5, 2025

Barcelona beat Borussia Dortmund: Raphinha equals Lionel Messi Champions League record as winger battles Mohamed Salah for Ballon d'Or

Raphinha draws level with Lionel Messi for Barcelona following his side's win against Borussia Dortmund in the Champions League, making him favourite for the Ballon d'Or.

Apr 9, 22:57

The Match

Form, Standings, Stats

Barcelona

All competitions

Champions League

Last Game: Barcelona 1-1 Betis
Saturday, April 5 at 8pm in La Liga

Goals
for

Top scorers

Borussia Dortmund

All competitions

Champions League

Last Game: Freiburg 1-4 Dortmund
Saturday, April 5 at 2.30pm in Bundesliga

Goals
for

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Barcelona win with a probability of 57.24%. A win for Borussia Dortmund had a probability of 22.62% and a draw had a probability of 20.1%.

The most likely scoreline for a Barcelona win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.38%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (6.98%) and 3-1 (6.94%). The likeliest Borussia Dortmund win was 1-2 (5.69%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (8.46%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 2.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Barcelona would win this match.

Result
Barcelona	Draw	Borussia Dortmund
57.24%	20.13%	22.62%

Both teams to score 65.87%

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

69.03%

30.96%

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

47.65%

52.34%

Barcelona Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

89.11%

10.89%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

64.96%

35.03%

Borussia Dortmund Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

73.91%

26.08%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

38.86%

61.13%

Score Analysis

Barcelona 57.24%

Borussia Dortmund 22.62%

Draw 20.14%

Barcelona	Draw	Borussia Dortmund
2-1 @ 9.38% 2-0 @ 6.98% 3-1 @ 6.94% 1-0 @ 6.3% 3-0 @ 5.16% 3-2 @ 4.66% 4-1 @ 3.85% 4-0 @ 2.86% 4-2 @ 2.58% 5-1 @ 1.71% 5-0 @ 1.27% 4-3 @ 1.16% 5-2 @ 1.15% Other @ 3.25% Total : 57.24%	1-1 @ 8.46% 2-2 @ 6.31% 0-0 @ 2.84% 3-3 @ 2.09% Other @ 0.44% Total : 20.14%	1-2 @ 5.69% 0-1 @ 3.82% 2-3 @ 2.83% 0-2 @ 2.56% 1-3 @ 2.55% 0-3 @ 1.15% 2-4 @ 0.95% Other @ 3.08% Total : 22.62%