Preview: Casa Pia vs Rio Ave - prediction, team news, lineups

It is now or never for Casa Pia in the Primeira Liga relegation dogfight as they go head to head with Rio Ave at the Estadio Municipal de Rio Maior in the final fixture of the season on Saturday.

The visitors are guaranteed survival despite their poor late-season form, but Os Gansos need all three points here and, crucially, other league results going their way in order to crawl out of the relegation playoff spot.

Match preview

Casa Pia picked up one of their most important results in what has been a turbulent league campaign on Monday when they edged out Vitoria de Guimaraes 1-0 to stay in the fight for safety heading into the final matchday.

With nothing to separate the two sides at the Estadio Dom Afonso Henriques heading into the closing stages, Spanish midfielder Gaizka Larrazabal came up clutch for the visitors with an 86th-minute strike to hand them all three points and deny Guimaraes a third home win on the spin.

This was a much-needed result for Casa Pia, who had failed to taste victory in 10 straight matches since February 23, playing out four draws and losing six, including consecutive defeats against Braga, Gil Vicente and Tondela in their previous three games.

Os Gansos have remained in the Primeira Liga since gaining promotion back in the 2022-23 campaign, but a run of one win from their last 11 games has put their four-year stint in the top flight at severe risk of coming to an end.

Casa Pia have picked up 29 points from their 33 matches to sit 16th in the league table, one point above the automatic drop zone and only behind 15th-placed Estrela Amadora in safety on goal difference (-8).

A favourable result in Estrela’s game against Braga is crucial for Paulo Pinto’s men if they are to climb out of relegation playoff spot, and while they will need maximum points themselves on Saturday, they face the challenge of an opposing side who are unbeaten in eight of their last 10 meetings since December 2021.

Casa Pia will draw encouragement from Rio Ave’s late-season woes, with this weekend’s visitors failing to taste victory in any of their last four games, losing twice and claiming two draws since a 2-0 victory over Santa Clara on April 11.

Sotiris Sylaidopoulos’s men were condemned to their 14th Primeira Liga defeat on Monday as they were hammered 4-1 by Sporting Lisbon when the two sides squared off at the Estadio dos Arcos.

Brazilian winger Diogo Bezerra drilled in a low one into the bottom corner to hand the hosts a 14th-minute lead, but strikes from Luis Javier Suarez, Francisco Trincao, Geovany Quenda, and a 42nd-minute own goal from Gustavo Macha saw Sporting Lisbon turn the game on its head.

The result against Sporting further stressed Rio Ave’s defensive vulnerability, continuing a season-long concern that has seen the Vilacondenses ship 56 goals — the second-highest tally among teams outside the relegation places.

Despite their recent struggles, Rio Ave have done enough to guarantee survival, with the Vila do Conde outfit occupying 13th place in the league standings with 35 points, six points above the dreaded bottom three.

Casa Pia Primeira Liga form:

Rio Ave Primeira Liga form:

Team News

Casa Pia remain without the services of veteran goalkeeper Ricardo Batista, who is set to sit out his 14th consecutive game since sustaining a severe injury back in February.

Lawrence Ofori was forced off injured in a major blow for Os Gansos against Vitoria de Guimaraes last time out and the Ghanaian midfielder is a doubt for this weekend’s crunch finale.

Should Ofori fail to shake off the injury in time, 28-year-old Abdu Conte should get the nod, teaming up with Colombian midfielder Sebastian Perez at the centre of the park.

As for Rio Ave, the duo of 24-year-old Francisco Petrasso and Brazilian midfielder Ryan Guilherme will sit out this Saturday’s tie due to suspension after getting sent off against Sporting Lisbon last time out.

In their absence, 23-year-old defender Joao Tome and Greek international Andreas Ndoj should come into the fold, while we expect to see an unchanged attacking quartet of Diogo Bezerra, Jalen Blesa, Dario Spikic and striker Tamble Monteiro.

On the injury front, the Vilacondenses will take to the pitch without the services of Costa Rican midfielder Brandon Aguilera Zamora, who has been sidelined since January through a cruciate ligament injury.

Casa Pia possible starting lineup:

Sequeira; Silva, Geraldes, Sousa; Larrazabal, Conte, Perez, Rosas; Livolant, Cassiano, Marques

Rio Ave possible starting lineup:

Mista; Tome, Mancha, Brabec, Vrousai; Ndoj, Nikitscher; Spikic, Blesa, Bezerra; Monteiro

We say: Casa Pia 2-1 Rio Ave

While Rio Ave have little to play for, the stakes are high for Casa Pia, who are aware that anything other than a win this weekend could potentially see them drop into the Segunda Liga. Off the back of a huge result against Guimaraes, Casa Pia will play in front of their home crowd with momentum firmly behind them, and we predict they will go all out and exploit Rio Ave’s defensive frailties to get the desired result.

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