Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a VfL Bochum win with a probability of 43.11%. A win for Mainz 05 had a probability of 32.78% and a draw had a probability of 24.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a VfL Bochum win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.01%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.04%) and 2-0 (6.51%). The likeliest Mainz 05 win was 1-2 (7.7%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.12%). The actual scoreline of 1-4 was predicted with a 1.2% likelihood.