Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Hoffenheim win with a probability of 44.31%. A win for Mainz 05 had a probability of 31.72% and a draw had a probability of 24%.
The most likely scoreline for a Hoffenheim win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.12%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.11%) and 2-0 (6.69%). The likeliest Mainz 05 win was 1-2 (7.53%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.04%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 6.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Hoffenheim would win this match.